El Bitcoin no solo es un tema de conversación para economistas e inversores; sus movimientos en el mercado tienen el poder de influir en la economía global y, de forma indirecta, en la economía de todos nosotros.
Con ello surgen varios cuestionamientos: ¿Qué implica su volatilidad para la población en general? ¿Es una revolución financiera o “puerto seguro” como argumentan algunos?. Es así que el Dr. Amilcar Orlián Fernández Domínguez especialista de la Facultad de Economía Internacional de la Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua explica que las criptomonedas son monedas virtuales, sin equivalente físico, que usan criptografía para asegurar las transacciones y pagos para controlar la creación de nuevas unidades monetarias.
En las últimas semanas, el Bitcoin alcanzó precios históricos de más de 108 mil dólares, solo para desplomarse cerca de 10% en cuestión de días, pero este tipo de comportamiento no es nuevo. En 2022, su valor cayó un 70% en menos de seis meses, dejando en el aire más de 350 mil millones de dólares ¿Qué está detrás de estas fluctuaciones y qué significa para quienes ven en el Bitcoin una oportunidad de inversión?
El lado riesgoso del Bitcoin: la especulación y falta de regulación.
“El Bitcoin fue creado para facilitar transacciones directas, sin intermediarios como bancos o gobiernos. Sin embargo, una gran parte de los compradores actuales no busca usarlo como medio de pago, sino como una herramienta para especular”, explican los doctores Michael Demmler y A. Orlian Fernández, en su artículo “Speculative bubble tendencies in time series of Bitcoin market prices”.
Esta especulación, alimentada por la euforia de los medios, es la principal razón detrás de los picos y caídas en su precio. Según Demmler y Fernández, los momentos de explosividad en el mercado no solo se limitan a eventos icónicos como la burbuja de 2017, sino que se han repetido a lo largo de la última década.
Además, la falta de regulación dificulta que estas tecnologías beneficien realmente a la población en general, como ofrecer opciones de pago accesibles para quienes no tienen acceso a servicios bancarios. Por otra parte, existe la posibilidad de que se presenten prácticas fraudulentas o engañosas como el famoso “pump and dump”, el cual consiste en inflar el precio de la criptomoneda de manera ficticia.
¿Es una buena idea invertir en Bitcoin?
El atractivo del Bitcoin como inversión radica en su capacidad de generar rendimientos significativos, generalmente para quienes tienen una estrategia de largo plazo. Por otro lado, es cuestionable que sea una apuesta segura para aquellos con horizontes de inversión más cortos: “El potencial del Bitcoin como medio de diversificación o puerto seguro durante condiciones de mercado problemáticas es limitado”, advierten Demmler y Fernández.
Su recomendación es clara: informarse y actuar con cautela: “La tendencia en los últimos años ha sido el de interpretar a las criptomonedas como vehículos de especulación ante la búsqueda de alternativas de inversión más atractivas que otros instrumentos de bajo rendimiento”.
¿El futuro de tu economía en manos del Bitcoin?
El Bitcoin sigue siendo un fenómeno intrigante. Aunque sus beneficios potenciales son relevantes, su volatilidad y falta de regulación plantea desafíos que podrían afectar su integración en la economía global. Para la población, esto significa mantenerse alerta y bien informada sobre sus características y tendencia.
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